Question about Spreading Phenomena
A research team is investigating the spread of a pathogen in a large contact network using an SIR model. During simulations, they obtained the following three observations: Observation A: When β is increased while μ is kept fixed, the distribution of outbreak sizes shows a sudden transition from mostly small outbreaks to frequent large outbreaks. Observation B : In networks with highly irregular degree distributions, a small fraction of nodes is responsible for the vast majority of early transmissions. Observation C: After the outbreak peaks, the number of infectious nodes always decreases to zero, even when β ≫ μ. The team proposes the following four hypotheses to explain the observations: A corresponds to the existence of an epidemic threshold related to the transmissibility T = β/(β + μ). B indicates that heterogeneity in the degree distribution affects both the threshold condition and the probability of large outbreaks. C implies that the SIR model can exhibit a sustained...